Is Ireland going to have elections before Christmas?

What is the crisis threatening to bring down the Irish government?

It is all related to a police corruption scandal that goes all the way back to 2007. Sergeant Maurice McCabe acted as a Garda whistleblower. (The Garda is just the name of the police force in Ireland). In 2008, he alleged that corruption and malpractice was apparent in his division, Cavan—Monaghan. It eventually led to an independent review being launched in February by senior counsel Sean Guerin leading to the publication of the Guerin report. Even before the report was published, then Garda commissioner, Martin Callinan was forced to resign.

When the report was released publicly in May 2014. It was so critical of how the then justice minister, Alan Shatter had handled the situation that he resigned. (It’s really important to note who takes over from him – Frances Fitzgerald – as we’ll be coming back to her later.) It also argued than a far more extensive investigation was needed to further investigate McCabe’s allegations. It resulted in the O’Higgins Commission being established.

The O’Higgins commission would conclude in 2016 that McCabe had ‘acted out of genuine and legitimate concerns’ but did not find any evidence that supported claims of corruption though it did agree that not all victims were given the best treatment by the Garda force. It also attempted to rehabilitate Shatter suggesting he’d taken concerns ‘very seriously’.

You’d think that would be it all settled but no, this Irish edition of 'House of Cards' was given a new season when it was revealed that our whistleblower, McCabe, was subject to unfair allegations meant to smear him and dilute the veracity of his claims by the lawyers representing the new Garda commissioner, Noirin Sulivan.  This led to another investigation being launched this year in February which is referenced in the media as either the Disclosures Tribunal or the Charleton Tribunal. In September, Sulivan would step down as Garda chief arguing that their were too many investigations that were getting in the way of her ability to be a successful commissioner.

What’s this got to do with the Irish Government?

Remember Fitzgerald who took over as Justice minister? Well she’s now Tanaiste which is the Deputy Prime Minister. It came out on Friday that she had email correspondence which would suggest that as Justice minister, she was aware of a plan by the Garda to discredit McCabe.

The Fine Gale party is currently governing Ireland as a minority government. It is able to survive as it is a ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement with the second largest party, Fianna Fail. They have called a no confidence motion for today (Tuesday 28^th November) which would result in the government failing and elections before Christmas. However, Fianna Fail have said if Taoiseach (that’s the Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar gets rid of Fitzgerald then they’ll stop the no confidence motion.

It appears that Varadkar is not willing to push Fitzgerald to go and Fianna Fail are not willing to back down. Things appeared to look even bleaker for Fitzgerald on Monday evening when two more emails came to light showing that she was aware of the practices being carried out to discredit McCabe. It’s led to many in her own party beginning to suggest, off the record, that she should go to allow the government to continue. She argues that since the Charleton Tribunal is already existing, and she is due to give evidence in January, she has no reason to step down.

Frances Fitzgerald

Will it lead to elections before Christmas?

If Fitzgerald doesn’t resign then almost certainly yes. My instinct is that she’ll resign at some point this morning before the motion can be enacted. There is very little appetite for new elections from the public or even from any of the parties. The polls show that it’d only result in a very similar result to the current situation. It’s also being reported that business leaders within Ireland are against an election right now because they worry it’ll weaken Ireland’s hand as they attempt to reach a deal with the UK over the border question. Taken together, it seems incredibly unlikely that she’ll manage to stay on but then if politics of late has proven anything, it’s that anything can happen.