Is Ireland going to have elections before Christmas?

What is the crisis threatening to bring down the Irish government?

It is all related to a police corruption scandal that goes all the way back to 2007. Sergeant Maurice McCabe acted as a Garda whistleblower. (The Garda is just the name of the police force in Ireland). In 2008, he alleged that corruption and malpractice was apparent in his division, Cavan—Monaghan. It eventually led to an independent review being launched in February by senior counsel Sean Guerin leading to the publication of the Guerin report. Even before the report was published, then Garda commissioner, Martin Callinan was forced to resign.

When the report was released publicly in May 2014. It was so critical of how the then justice minister, Alan Shatter had handled the situation that he resigned. (It’s really important to note who takes over from him – Frances Fitzgerald – as we’ll be coming back to her later.) It also argued than a far more extensive investigation was needed to further investigate McCabe’s allegations. It resulted in the O’Higgins Commission being established.

The O’Higgins commission would conclude in 2016 that McCabe had ‘acted out of genuine and legitimate concerns’ but did not find any evidence that supported claims of corruption though it did agree that not all victims were given the best treatment by the Garda force. It also attempted to rehabilitate Shatter suggesting he’d taken concerns ‘very seriously’.

You’d think that would be it all settled but no, this Irish edition of 'House of Cards' was given a new season when it was revealed that our whistleblower, McCabe, was subject to unfair allegations meant to smear him and dilute the veracity of his claims by the lawyers representing the new Garda commissioner, Noirin Sulivan.  This led to another investigation being launched this year in February which is referenced in the media as either the Disclosures Tribunal or the Charleton Tribunal. In September, Sulivan would step down as Garda chief arguing that their were too many investigations that were getting in the way of her ability to be a successful commissioner.

What’s this got to do with the Irish Government?

Remember Fitzgerald who took over as Justice minister? Well she’s now Tanaiste which is the Deputy Prime Minister. It came out on Friday that she had email correspondence which would suggest that as Justice minister, she was aware of a plan by the Garda to discredit McCabe.

The Fine Gale party is currently governing Ireland as a minority government. It is able to survive as it is a ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement with the second largest party, Fianna Fail. They have called a no confidence motion for today (Tuesday 28^th November) which would result in the government failing and elections before Christmas. However, Fianna Fail have said if Taoiseach (that’s the Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar gets rid of Fitzgerald then they’ll stop the no confidence motion.

It appears that Varadkar is not willing to push Fitzgerald to go and Fianna Fail are not willing to back down. Things appeared to look even bleaker for Fitzgerald on Monday evening when two more emails came to light showing that she was aware of the practices being carried out to discredit McCabe. It’s led to many in her own party beginning to suggest, off the record, that she should go to allow the government to continue. She argues that since the Charleton Tribunal is already existing, and she is due to give evidence in January, she has no reason to step down.

Frances Fitzgerald

Will it lead to elections before Christmas?

If Fitzgerald doesn’t resign then almost certainly yes. My instinct is that she’ll resign at some point this morning before the motion can be enacted. There is very little appetite for new elections from the public or even from any of the parties. The polls show that it’d only result in a very similar result to the current situation. It’s also being reported that business leaders within Ireland are against an election right now because they worry it’ll weaken Ireland’s hand as they attempt to reach a deal with the UK over the border question. Taken together, it seems incredibly unlikely that she’ll manage to stay on but then if politics of late has proven anything, it’s that anything can happen.

What really happen to Gareth Williams - the spy found dead in a sports bag?

the world of John Le Carre, deaths by the security services are usually carried out to look like accidents. It makes sense, they don’t want any fuss. An important agent or scientist that needs to be deposed of, in the cause of national security will therefore be made to look like a travel accident, heart attack or suicide. The reader, and the public by large, want something else. They enjoy scandal with their intrigue. They want to believe that the world of National Security is one of high espionage and high stakes. 

It is why the death of Gareth Williams in the Summer of 2010 enthralled the nation. Williams was found naked decomposing in a padlocked sports bag in an empty bathtub in a locked flat. The police arrived around a week after he died. At that point, they were convinced that foul play had taken place. This story would probably have made the news regardless of his profession but the fact that he worked for MI6 solidified it. It could easily be the plot of an airport novel.

For the next two years, the British public would eat up scandalous tales that the tabloid press were throwing out. Like seagulls on the seafront pier, they happily gorged on anything without much though. Stories that could not be at all verified – such as the allegation that Williams enjoyed crossdressing and had thousands of pounds worth of women’s clothing – were thrown out to further satisfy the needs of a hungry readership.

Of course, it also helped to delegitimise Williams in the eyes of the public. Though ‘The Sun’ and its ilk would never come out with it fully, its inference was clear. This man engaged in fetishes. He was not normal. His death therefore could have been a tragic accident and there was nothing more to see here. The press don’t mind doing that, they do it often enough. They’re quite happy to throw an entire group under the bus if it sells. There was no foundation for the crude way that they treated Williams. They happily painted a picture of a sexual deviant using the fact that his search history showed mild interest in bondage and his supposed crossdressing as evidence. Never mind that there is nothing at all connected between those two activities or that there is anything deviant either. It gave the tabloids enough to discredit Williams.

The story had moved on from the fact that he was a secret service agent to the fact that he had strange sexual fantasies. One really must marvel at the power of the press. A spy is found in a padlocked holdhall in an empty bathtub. His phone is found to have been wiped and the actual bag has no fingerprints of Williams anywhere on it. The key to the lock is underneath the bag. All evidence in those initial assessments points to foul play. However, the press was able to formulate a juicer story on far less evidence that somehow discounted the notion of foul play in the eyes of many.   

Having said that, the initial coroner, Dr. Fiona Wilcox would eventually conclude that it was most likely criminally motivated. She did however state that she didn’t have enough evidence to conclude this for sure which resulted in the investigation being reopened.  It would however conclude that it was most likely a tragic accident.

It’s not entirely unfathomable that it was an accidentaldeath. In the first inquest, Williams’ landlady would give evidence that one night in 2007 she was awaken at around half one in the morning by Williamscalling for help. He’d managed to tie himself to his bed and couldn’t get out. She, along with her husband, helped him out and they never spoke of it again. However she believed it was probably more to do with a sexual fantasy than escapology. Then again, people often explain the unexplainable by using their own frame of reference so perhaps explaining it away as misadventure was easier than believing her lodger was an able spy.

Whatever the truth, this story will continue to run. In 2015 his death was again questioned in the British press. The Daily Mail would suggest that MI6 were angered when Williams accessed confidential data on Bill Clinton. Then again, this was just as Hillary was beginning her Presidential run so it is entirely possible that this story was completely fabricated to make the Clinton’s look bad. Later that same year, a former KGB agent would claim that Williams death had came at the hands of Russians who wanted to protect a source they had in GCHQ.

In the end, the enigma that was Gareth Williams will likely never be fully decoded. A undeniably intelligent and bright light whose candle became unlit in the strangest of circumstances. It was enough to result in a TV series, London Spy, being created based on him. That is unsurprising considering how interesting the story was. It’s just unfortunate that it was real life and not just a work of fiction. Williams was not an interesting character brought to life by an impressive novelist. He was a man with a family who have had to suffer not only the loss of a son and brother but also the constant invasion of the press hungry for a good story.