Who will be the next Prime Minister?

Okay so before we get started, I don’t think Theresa May will be out on her ear anything soon. However given the fact that she did have a particularly disastrous conference speech, anyone who had knives at the ready might be tempted to strike. Even if she isn’t ousted in the next couple of days, I don’t think she’ll be the PM at the announcement of the next General Election. It’s with that in mind that I’ve created a list of those most likely to succeed her.

9. Ruth Davidson. 

She’s marked herself out as the hero of the Tories in a lot of senses. She’s a fan favourite, along with Johnson, at party conferences. This is quite a good sign because if any of the public ever vote on the next leader, it’ll be members of the party. The route to her ever being Prime Minister is hard to imagine though, never mind being the next one. She’d have to be an MP and currently she isn’t. The decision to leave Holyrood to run at Westminster comes with its own political challenges. She’s successfully won the position of leader of the opposition at the Scottish Parliament, she has no real incentive to make the move anytime soon.

8. Jacob Rees-Mogg.

 I’m fully aware that saying ‘this absolutely will not happen’ is a surefire way of predicting what will happen in politics as of late but I’m pretty confident in asserting Rees-Mogg will not be the next PM. He’s benefited from publicity as of late and did come first in a poll of members earlier this year for Conservative Home. This poll had the benefit though of being purely hypothetical and it’s unbelievably unlikely that this would transpire to actual support. His outdated views on marriage and abortion would confine the Tories to defeat in a General Election and the Party may be many things but electorally suicidal is not one of them.

7. Dominic Raab.

 Raab has the makings of a Golden Boy for voters. He supported Brexit for one. Much earlier on in his career as an MP, he argued against ‘positive discrimination’ that was adversely affecting white men applying to the Foreign Office work experience scheme. He’s also quite handsome and performs well on TV. Then again, he is a bit young - he only joined the commons in 2010. That has its bonuses in a campaign though. He lost some support among fellow Tory MPs when he jumped ship from Johnson to Gove during the last leadership contest in 2015. My money says he waits out his Prime Ministerial ambitions for an election cycle or two.

6. Amber Rudd.

 She’s Home Secretary, was a remainer and unfortunately is probably just too linked to May to be seen as a viable alternative. I think that’s unfair and her gender definitely plays a role in that which wouldn’t be as issue if the current PM was a man. Before the last election, there was a general feeling that she’d been over promoted but proved the doubters wrong during the campaign. She performed well at the debate and was very prominent in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Manchester and London. She would definitely face an uphill battle to even get nominated for the leadership contest given her Remainer credentials. Then again she’s a more liberal candidate than many which could see a rise in her chances. One additional issue is that she only won her seat by 346 votes. It would be a monumental upset if she were to win the leadership contents only to be unseated at the General election.

5. David Davis. 

I’m not going to lie, before Brexit I had little idea as to who this man was. However he’s now a powerful player in the Brexit negotiations and has been seen as somewhat of an ally of May. It’s this, along with his genuine desire for Brexit, that has makes his name consistently come up in talks about the next leader. Then again, the relationship with May isn’t all rosy given the fact she might hold him responsible for talking her into the ill fated election campaign. My instinct is that he doesn’t particularly want the top job and that Brexit is really what is close to his heart. If he can be convinced that another leader will let him plough on with Brexit then I imagine he’d settle for that.

4. Philip Hammond. 

He’s the Chancellor, aligned with business interests and very much the face of soft Brexit in the cabinet. Compared to Davis and Johnson, he’s far less often talked as a contender for PM. However an interesting story published in The Spectator in late June floated the idea of Hammond as a caretaker PM. This option would stop a grueling leadership contest. In truth this is an option that most  Tory MPs would like as they know that they can ill afford a hostile and long internal battle. The problem is that Hammond is just too light on Brexit for many Leave MPs. Given this scenario is probably the only one that leads to Hammond being PM, it’s unlikely to come to fruition.

3. Jeremy Corbyn. 

It’d be remiss to mention the Labour leader. Ironically, perhaps he gives May some twisted sense of hope that her predicament is only temporary. Corbyn after all was almost booted out too and fought an incredible fightback. Unfortunately for her, it’s unlikely her party will ever let her run another election campaign as leader. This is actually why I think the odds of Corbyn being the next PM are unbelievably low. It’s an incredibly high possibility he’ll be PM after the next General Election but chances are that he’ll be facing someone other than May.

2. Boris Johnson. 

The former Mayor of London and current Foreign Secretary. His name recognition is so high that if Cabinet Members was a round on Pointless, I’m pretty sure he’d be mentioned more times that May herself. However being recognised isn’t always an advantage. We’re all aware that being seen as a laugh doesn’t necessarily transfer to votes and whilst he’s guaranteed a standing ovation at a Conference, he doesn’t inspire confidence as a leader in as half as many people. Not only that but a lot of MPs who have talked shit about Johnson won’t want him as the big boss man because it’ll dampen their political futures.  Whilst conventional wisdom holds that he’ll be the next leader, I can’t help but think he’ll be the political version of always the bridesmaid and never the bride. After all everyone is talking about how embarrassing and pitiful May is after her coughing fit but in my eyes, it's far less pitiful than having a supposed ally stab you in the back right before you make your move to PM. Then again, I guess the silver lining is that if he does run again, it would be hard pressed to have as disastrous non-campaign as his first one. 

1. Damian Green. 

He is probably the closest thing to an ally that Theresa May has. They trust each other a lot and May has granted him quite some power. He’s the First Secretary of State and Cabinet Office minister. When she can’t do PMQ, he stands in. In the absence of a deputy, he is for all intents and purposes hers. He’s very much an outsider but if the Party did decide against a leadership contest but weren't keen on Hammond then he’d a good shout for a compromise candidate. It could also work to appease May and give her a somewhat dignified exit. The problem is he’s not seen as very electable and that could put a lot of people off. Then again we live in a time of political upsets and I'd suggest a little flutter on Green as an outsider.